Is it the same bet on Kalshi and Polymarket?
The same event is often listed on both venues. Whether it is the same bet depends on the fine print — the settlement source, what happens if the data is late, how the number is rounded. Every page here compares the two venues' own published terms for one matched pair, using a deterministic rule check, and shows the live price and fee on each side.
Tracking 61 pairs right now; 4 verify as the same bet. No picks, no predictions — just what each venue says it will do.
Fee calculator
Both venues' exact published formulas at any price.
Why "same event" isn't "same bet"
Three real cases where identical-looking contracts paid differently.
Legal status by state
Court orders, cease-and-desists, and rulings, sourced.
Taxes
What forms each venue sends, and what practitioners say about reporting.
Verified: the same bet on both venues
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting | Same bet ✓ | global only |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting | Same bet ✓ | global only |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting | Same bet ✓ | global only |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting | Same bet ✓ | global only |
CPI inflation, year over year
Core CPI, month over month
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in August | Not verified | global only |
Fed rate decisions
House control 2026
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the House in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
| Will Republicans win the House in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
ISM Manufacturing PMI
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in Sep 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Nonfarm payrolls
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will above -100000 jobs be added in August 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above -50000 jobs be added in August 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above 0 jobs be added in August 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above 100000 jobs be added in August 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above 150000 jobs be added in August 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above 50000 jobs be added in August 2026 | Not verified | US |
Real GDP growth
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Senate control 2026
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
| Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Unemployment rate
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in August | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August | Not verified | global only |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in September | Not verified | global only |